Xi and Trump Discussed Adding Dairy to a Tariff Reduction List. Here Is What a Potential China Trade Shift Means for Your Cooperative's Milk Placement.

Last week, President Xi Jinping met with President Trump to discuss lowering tariffs on agricultural products under a framework being called the "30-For-30" list. U.S. dairy products were included in those discussions. No agreement has been signed. Nothing is final. But for dairy cooperatives watching where U.S. milk will flow in 2027, this is the most significant development in months.

China was the third-largest destination for U.S. dairy exports before tariff escalations under the first Trump administration reduced access. Restoring even partial market access would add meaningful demand to a domestic supply pool that is already running at 236.9 billion pounds, with Class III prices at $15.80 per hundredweight and Canadian import channels closed.

‍

What the "30-For-30" Framework Involves

The term comes from reports of a reciprocal tariff reduction list: 30 U.S. product categories in exchange for 30 Chinese product categories. Dairy was named as one of the U.S. sectors under discussion. The specific products, tariff rates, and timelines are not yet public.

China currently applies tariffs on U.S. dairy imports that range significantly depending on product. Fluid milk, whey, lactose, cheese, and butter all carry separate tariff structures. Before 2018, China was buying roughly $600 million in U.S. dairy products per year. After tariff escalations, that number fell sharply.

If the "30-For-30" talks produce a reduction even back toward 2017-level access, the effect on Class III cheese and whey markets would be direct and measurable. More export demand means more competition for domestic milk, and that is positive for cooperative pricing.

‍

Why This Matters Differently Than the Canada Situation

The U.S.-Canada dairy tariff conflict has been a source of supply surplus and pricing pressure all fall. Losing the Canadian export channel has contributed to the cheese supply accumulation that is holding Class III at $15.80. The Canada situation is a constraint.

A China trade deal would be an expansion. These are not the same dynamic.

China's dairy market is also a different product mix than Canada. While Canada was a destination primarily for specialty ingredients, China historically bought whey products, milk proteins, fluid milk, and infant formula components. A reopened China market would pull on a different slice of U.S. dairy production, providing relief in categories that are not the ones currently under the most pressure.

For cooperatives that produce or ship to plants processing whey or milk powders, a China trade agreement could be the most significant pricing catalyst of the next 12 months.

‍

What Your Cooperative Should Watch

First: pay attention to the timeline. Tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China typically move slowly, but the "30-For-30" framing implies a structured exchange, not open-ended talks. If a framework agreement is announced before the end of October, implementation timelines could compress into early 2027.

Second: monitor Class III and Class IV price signals. If markets start pricing in an anticipated China reopening, you will see it in cheese and whey futures before any official announcement. Your pricing team should have that visibility now.

Third: confirm your plant relationships. Whey and powder processors are the first beneficiaries if China market access expands. Knowing which plants in your cooperative's network handle those products, and what their export exposure is, helps you anticipate where milk placement options may open up.

Fourth: do not restructure your routing plan around a deal that has not been signed. Use this window to understand your exposure, confirm your plant contacts, and prepare your Q1 contingency scenarios. The news is promising. The deal is not done.

Milk Moovement gives cooperatives the data infrastructure to respond quickly when market conditions shift. If you want to talk through how your routing and milk placement tools can position your co-op for a trade environment that may look very different in Q1 2027, reach out at sales@milkmoovement.com.

‍